Staying Ahead of Hate, Part V: When Global Conflict Becomes Local Risk
Recent targeted events in the US serve as another reminder that this type of violence does not emerge in isolation. It often evolves within a broader environment shaped by global conflict and digital amplification.
The attacks on a synagogue in Michigan and then at Old Dominion University occurred within days of one another. While different in execution and target, they reflect a common reality: today’s threat landscape is fluid, interconnected, and influenced by forces far beyond local communities.
What we are seeing is not simply a rise in isolated incidents. It is the continued convergence of ideology, access, and grievance—a convergence that is reshaping how and where acts of targeted violence occur.
When Distance No Longer Matters
In our not too distant past, geopolitical conflict was something observed at a distance. Its effects were felt through policy, economics, or long-term strategic shifts. That is no longer the case. Today, conflict abroad can influence behavior in other parts of the world in near real time.
While digital platforms can accelerate the spread of information, they can also amplify grievance, reinforce narratives, and create echo chambers that can intensify belief systems. Individuals are no longer just passive observers of global events; they are participants in a continuous flow of information, and, in some cases, radicalization.
The result is a compression of time between exposure, motivation, and action.
What may have once taken months to develop can now occur in a matter of days.
In recent months, we have seen incidents involving religious institutions, public spaces, and individuals targeted based on who they are or what they represent. These are not just random acts. They are expressions of identity-driven violence, shaped by broader narratives but executed at the local level.
This creates a challenge for security leaders. Traditional models, which separate global risk from local security planning, are no longer sufficient.
The Convergence of Tactics
At the same time, the methods used in these attacks are becoming more accessible and, in some cases, more blended.
Tactics such as vehicle ramming, the use of small arms, and fire-setting may require limited planning and minimal resources, but can produce significant impact. In several recent incidents, attackers have combined these methods, increasing both unpredictability and lethality.
This approach lowers the barrier to entry. It enables individuals with limited capability or resources to carry out attacks that would have previously required greater coordination or expertise.
Closing the Gap Between Insight and Action
The challenge facing security organizations today is not necessarily a lack of information, in many cases, the signals are present. The issue is the gap between what is known and what can be operationalized.
Protective intelligence must evolve beyond monitoring and collection. It must be directly connected to support decision-making and response.
That means:
- Linking individuals, behaviors, and environments
- Understanding how global events influence local risk
- Translating early indicators into actionable protective measures
In an environment where global conflict can influence local behavior almost instantly, the ability to move from signal to decision to action is no longer a “nice-to-have” capability, it is an essential requirement.
Looking Ahead
As global tensions persist, the likelihood of localized, ideologically influenced incidents will continue to be elevated. The task for security leaders is not only to respond to events, but to anticipate how broader impacts may manifest within their own environments.
Staying ahead of hate requires more than awareness. It requires a structured, operational approach to understanding risk as it evolves—across borders, across platforms, and across communities.
Because in today’s world, the next incident is rarely without warning.
It is often preceded by signals we have yet to fully connect.
View the Full Series: Staying Ahead of Hate
About the Author
John Gill
Executive VP Business Strategy, KasewareJohn is a seasoned security executive with 35+ years of experience in public and private sectors. He served 25 years with the Secret Service, where he managed multi-agency security for major events and held key roles, including Attaché of the Paris Field Office and Chief Security Officer at the White House.
Since 2010, he has provided executive leadership and strategic guidance as a consultant and is currently the Executive Vice President of Kaseware, specializing in investigative case management and data analytics solutions.
