Staying Ahead of Hate, Part II: Political Violence Is Escalating—So Must Our Response

The recent assassination of a political candidate and the shooting of another in Minnesota is not just a tragedy—it is a wake-up call. As threats against public officials reach historic highs, this latest act of violence highlights the disturbing reality we now face: political violence in the United States is accelerating, targeting public servants at every level of government.

The alleged shooter, now in custody, has left a trail of extreme ideological beliefs, encompassing both political and religious radicalism. His actions did not occur in a vacuum—they followed a clear and escalating pattern of grievance, isolation, and radicalization. These are the signs we must get better at recognizing.

Unfortunately, this case is far from isolated. We’ve seen the pattern before:

• 2011: U.S. Rep. Gabby Giffords was shot during a constituent event; six others died.

• 2017: Rep. Steve Scalise was critically injured in a politically motivated shooting at a congressional baseball practice.

• 2020: A plot to kidnap Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer by anti-government militia members was uncovered by the FBI. 

• 2021: Rioters stormed the US Capitol, seeking to do harm or capture lawmakers, following the 2020 presidential election.  

• 2022: Paul Pelosi, husband of then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, was violently attacked in his home by an intruder allegedly targeting her.

• 2024: Two separate assassination attempts were made against then Presidential candidate Donald Trump.

These events differ in ideology and affiliation—but what unites them is the growing boldness of political violence, and the increasingly visible warning signs that precede it.

Understanding the Pathway to Violence

To stand a better chance of preventing these tragedies, we must move beyond surface-level analysis and begin refining our understanding of what experts call the "pathway to violence"—the progressive steps individuals take from grievance to ideation to planning and, ultimately, to action.

This includes:

• Tracking ideological escalation (whether rooted in politics, religion or conspiracy, radicalization often unfolds gradually)

• Recognizing behavioral indicators (many violent actors exhibit behavioral patterns that suggest movement along the pathway to violence)

• Identifying patterns of previous threats or aggression (violence is rarely the first concerning behavior). 

• Correlating online activity with real-world behavior (a person’s digital footprint often reveals intent or directionality)

But identifying the pathway is only helpful when we’re also working from connected data and coordinated insights.

The Cost of Siloed Systems

Too often, red flags are scattered across agencies and platforms:

• A tip submitted to a local hotline

• A concerning social media post

• An incident report filed in another jurisdiction

• A Human Resources complaint regarding an employee’s threatening behavior

• A friend or relative noticing radical behavior—but not knowing who to call

What we lack isn’t awareness—it’s integration.

At Kaseware, our mission is to help agencies bridge these gaps:

• Fuse data from across systems—law enforcement, open source, and community input

• Connect the dots with AI-powered search, link analysis and entity resolution

• Share securely with the right partners—balancing operational need with privacy and legal safeguards

• Alert analysts proactively, so they can act on signal, not just sift through noise

From Political Division to Political Danger

Political violence is no longer a fringe issue. It is a national security threat. From Giffords to Scalise, from Trump to Pelosi, and now most recently in Minnesota, across party lines and all government levels—any public figure can become a target.

This is not about partisanship. It’s about protection. And it’s about prevention.

We must ensure that law enforcement and security agencies have the tools to act early and decisively. That means investing in better threat assessment training and tools, better cross-agency collaboration, and better technology to identify escalation before it's too late.

A Call to Action

The attacks in Minnesota must not fade into the background. It should focus our attention—sharpen our resolve.

Because when someone walks a known pathway to violence, we need more than hindsight. We need insight—and the infrastructure to act on it.

At Kaseware, we stand ready to support that mission. Our platform helps agencies move from scattered data to coordinated prevention, giving investigators and analysts the power to intervene before violence becomes irreversible.

Because in this rising tide of hate, grievance, and extremism—the most dangerous threat is the one we almost saw coming.